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change in load factors which has the main influence on the forecast, so if the absolute
load factors are different but the changes are similar, then the inputs will still be
appropriate.
The forecast is based on the previous increasing trend as shown in Figure 27 but it is
combined with assumptions about maximum limits that can be maintained by the
airlines in the medium-term8.
Figure 27. Example of forecast for load factors – here for Europe. (Original data AEA.
STATFOR analysis).
8 Cross-checked against ICAO CAEP/8 FESG Forecast Inputs and Assumptions (unpublished).
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The lower bound on the forecast of load factors is assumed to correspond to the lowgrowth
scenario. This makes sense in terms of the air transport business, but the side
effect of this is to bring close the overall low- and high-growth traffic forecasts,
because in the high-growth scenario, more of the growth in passengers is absorbed in
load factor growth and less in growth in flight-frequencies.
Figure 28. Load factors by Traffic Region.
Source: Actual: AEA, IATA. Forecast: STATFOR analysis and modelling.
Comments: Data for 2009 based on year to November.
Units: Percentage Load Factor for this Traffic Region. Data last updated: 14/01/2010.
Actual Low Base High
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2016 2016 2016
ESRA East 64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 68.4% 70.3% 72.0% 73.8%
ESRA Mediterranean 64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 68.4% 70.3% 72.0% 73.8%
ESRA North-West 64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 68.4% 70.3% 72.0% 73.8%
Far-East 78.7% 76.6% 80.7% 76.3% 78.0% 79.7% 80.7% 83.2% 80.7% 79.8% 83.7% 85.0% 85.0%
Former CIS Region 64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 68.4% 70.3% 72.0% 73.8%
Mid-Atlantic 79.8% 78.9% 79.1% 79.4% 80.3% 81.7% 82.1% 84.3% 83.3% 80.7% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
Middle-East 67.1% 63.3% 67.5% 69.2% 69.6% 73.5% 70.8% 74.6% 73.5% 70.0% 74.0% 74.0% 74.0%
North Atlantic 77.4% 73.6% 79.7% 79.5% 81.3% 82.2% 81.1% 81.7% 80.9% 82.7% 83.5% 85.0% 85.0%
North-Africa 70.5% 65.2% 68.8% 65.3% 68.7% 67.0% 68.4% 69.4% 70.5% 68.4% 66.8% 70.0% 73.2%
Oceania 78.7% 76.6% 80.7% 76.3% 78.0% 79.7% 80.7% 83.2% 80.7% 79.8% 83.7% 85.0% 85.0%
Other 64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 68.4% 70.3% 72.0% 73.8%
South-Atlantic 79.7% 73.8% 76.1% 82.2% 82.9% 82.5% 86.3% 85.1% 81.0% 79.2% 84.2% 85.0% 85.0%
Southern Africa 74.3% 77.4% 76.4% 75.9% 78.2% 77.9% 77.9% 79.2% 77.8% 77.9% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
D.6 Events and Trends
‘Events and Trends’ are used to represent future events. The forecast method means
that only the local traffic (excluding overflights) can be adjusted in this way but with
the possibility to account for diverging trends in domestic and external flights by
adjusting internals or arrivals and departures separately.
Figure 29 summarises the events and trends assumptions for this forecast. The
assumptions are expressed as 'cumulative' change: so a 1.01 figure in the year 2011
only would mean increase growth by 1% in 2011 and decrease it in 2012 (with a total
cumulative effect of 0 over the full period of the forecast).
The events in this forecast are:
· EU accession: Following the recent slowdown in the growth of Romania and
Bulgaria, the EU accession boost to traffic (due to joining in January 2007) is now
smaller than the one used in MTF09. Croatia and Iceland are expected to join the
EU around 2012. The effect of air transport and market liberalisation is factored in
by additional 5% growth in 2012, halving in the subsequent years.
· EU visa-free measures: after EC relaxation on visa requirements for Serbian,
Montenegrin and Macedonian citizens travelling to EU, the total traffic for these
States is expected to grow by additional 1% from 2010.
· For the London Olympics in 2012, the MTF 09 assumptions were based on
experience of FIFA World Cup in Germany in 2006 (Ref. 12). But, in contrast with
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FIFA for which matches are spread across the country during one month,
Olympics are more concentrated in a main place over a shorter period. FIFA
World Cup was estimated to have generated nearly 8,000 additional flights in
Germany in 2006. Considering the restrictions in airspace and runway capacity in
the London area, Olympics in 2012 are estimated to generate around 5,200
additional flights for UK distributed in the following proportions:
o 0.2% additional arrival-departure traffic,
　
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