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network changes are not modelled by the forecast.
· Tourism trends are quite variable. The medium-term forecast aims to be accurate
over the seven-year period, rather than identifying which will be the new holiday
“destination of preference” in a given year.
· Oil prices remain changeable with oil being increasingly an item of speculation
and investment. Fuel accounting for 25-35% or even more of costs of the airlines,
this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for customer. In this forecast,
changes in price of oil are not factored in.
· Aviation should join the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) from 2012.
Though some questions still remain to be answered, many of the practicalities of
the Scheme have now become much clearer. Meanwhile, aviation industry
actively seeks ways of improving fuel efficiency and has bound itself to reduce the
CO2 emissions over the coming years through a number of technical and
operational measures. By doing this, it can effectively limit operators’ expenses
directly related to the ETS. However, finding room for such improvements and
achieving these targets is not trivial. Extensive and continuous research, and
collaborative partnerships amongst the widest range of stakeholders should
enable reaching these goals. There are two main risks: if there are delays in
achieving the targets, then the costs will be higher and the impact larger;
secondly, these activities may bring considerable costs that will need to be
absorbed by the industry.
· Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters. The last seven years have not been
quiet ones for aviation. There is no reason to believe the next seven years will be
uneventful, with the risk of an avian flu pandemic one of the most obvious risks.
The impact on air traffic could be a temporary one, or more significant.
· Local effects. Many local changes are significant to particular airports, but less so
at the annual, State level. Some effects, such as the transfer of specific carrier
operations from one base to another might not have been modelled.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page 10 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
3.3 Network and Routing Effects
The route network and airlines’ choice of route are both continuously evolving.
For many States in Europe, most of their traffic is in overflights, so traffic
volumes can be very changeable as a result. The size of this effect, if remaining
strong in some geographically small States of South-East Europe, has
moderated over the recent years. Variations in overflights traffic will remain a
risk in our forecast, but recent improvements of the forecast method help to
mitigate this.
The forecasts of traffic per State are derived from the core airport-pair forecast using
the observed routes that were followed from airport to airport in the baseline year
(2009), moderated by recent changes in this that are picked up by the short-term
forecast (see Annex A). In practice, the route network is constantly being refined, and
aircraft operators choose their routes according to weather and a number of other
factors. For most States in Europe, the majority of their traffic is in overflights. So
there is clearly the potential for traffic volumes to vary solely because of routing
effects, without changing the traffic between airports.
A sensitivity analysis, to see how the choice of routes affects the traffic counts in each
States, has been conducted in the previous reports (see Refs. 7 and 8). The analysis
compared the baseline network with the direct routings network. The outcome was
that:
· for most of the States in Western Europe, the sensitivity to route changes was
rather small (± 5%);
· for the States located in South-East Europe, traffic volumes are most sensitive to
routings and remained most affected by network changes.
The size of the effect has moderated in the recent years, as observed in the previous
reports (see Refs 7 and 8).
Due to the improvements in the MTF method (detailed in Annex A), the changes in
overflights routings are now better captured (integration of recent trends contained in
the short-term forecast). Variations in overflights will nevertheless still remain a risk in
our forecast as they will be influenced by future changes to the route network, and
also depend on other factors such as weather, aircraft operator’s strategic decisions
(e.g.: costs issues, zone with high delays avoidance). More precise investigations of
future networks are performed by the EUROCONTROL Airspace, Network Planning &
Navigation teams, and are beyond the scope of this forecast.
　
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