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The study showed that even though pre-flight processing procedures and the sequence of those procedures may vary among vehicles, the vehicles studied share such pre-flight processing procedures as solid rocket motor handling and processing, flight termination system or separation ordnance installation and checkout, and fueling. These activities occur at different times for different vehicles. The likelihood of a mishap resulting from these procedures is similar for each vehicle. These procedures constitute hazardous operations that have an identifiable or otherwise quantifiable probability of occurrence (Po) of a mishap. The probabilities that these operations will
result in a mishap are approximately Po=10-4 to 10-5 for solid rocket motor handling and processing; Po=10-5 for
flight termination system or separation ordnance installation and checkout, and Po=10-3 to 10-6 for fueling.
"Eastern Launch Site Safety Programs," Louis J. Ullian, Commercial Space Risk and Insurance Symposium, Cocoa Beach, Florida (Oct. 26, 1988). These probabilities are relied upon by launch companies, federal agencies and federal launch ranges for their analyses of hazardous operation risks, and reflect the rigorous safety standards, analysis and review process required at federal launch ranges for hazardous ground operations.
The FAA considers these operations hazardous because their processes may lead to identifiable mishaps and dangerous consequences. Solid rocket motor handling and processing may result in ignition of the propellant, either explosively or otherwise. This may be caused by the unconstrained burning or explosion of a major portion of the propellant if circumstances prevented proper venting of the propellant. Casualties and property damage may result if an installed igniter initiates and causes an engine or solid rocket motor to become fully propulsive, as during flight. Casualties or damage may result from fire, explosion or toxic fumes that may be a by-product of combustion. These events may result in direct damage or casualties as the consequence of blast and debris effects. These events may also lead to secondary effects such as fires, explosions or unintended motor stage flight that may be caused by the direct blast and debris effects.
Flight termination system or separation ordnance installation and checkout may result in lethal or damaging releases of energy. The inadvertent ignition of installed or uninstalled ordnance, including that of the flight termination system and explosive bolts installed on various separation systems could result in explosion and debris. Fueling may result in a range of consequences, including fires, either pool fires or fireballs, or the release of vapor clouds, which may be toxic or which may ignite. These events may occur because of leakage during fueling or spills during an accident. If such a mishap involves toxic propellants, toxic components of the fuels may be released into the atmosphere or spilled on the ground. If a vehicle releases its hazardous materials into the atmosphere, it could expose people at a launch site or in the public at large to those hazards.
As a general rule, hazardous operations begin as soon as, or shortly after, a launch vehicle's major systems arrive at a launch site. The FAA relies on the new 1998 definition to employ a geographic element in defining launch by using entry of a launch vehicle onto a launch site in the United States as part of its definition of "launch." This ensures consistency and clarity of interpretation. Consistency is guaranteed by the fact that regardless of vehicle type, each vehicle will receive the same regulatory coverage within the United States. Although some commenters maintain that launch begins at different points for different vehicles, because the FAA wishes to treat launch operators in an equivalent fashion, the FAA will not define "launch" on the basis of the launch vehicle. Moreover, reliance on a geographic element provides clarity of interpretation even for a launch operator of a new vehicle using different technology. An applicant seeking a license for a new vehicle will know to plan for license coverage at the time its vehicle enters a U.S. launch site.
　
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