Report Content and Preparation
Chapter II discusses in general the role of fast-time simulation in aviation safety analysis and associated technical issues.  Chapter III describes the clear-air turbulence scenario and experimental design upon which the demonstration is focused.  Chapter IV describes the modeling approach and assumptions for demonstrating the linkage of a MIDAS-based human performance model with a RFS-based en route traffic operations simulation model.  Chapter V and Appendixes C and D detail the flight crew and controller procedures involved in the en route CAT scenario; these procedures form the basis for the human behavior modeling in MIDAS.  Finally, Chapter VI presents observations on the demonstration and discusses conclusions drawn from the research efforts, including potential areas of future research and development.
This report represents the joint efforts of this contract's research team, which included ATAC Corporation, the MIT Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, and the UCB Institute of Transportation Studies.  The research was a collaborative effort with the participation of San Jose State University and Georgia Institute of Technology.  ATAC had primary responsibility for assembling and editing the overall report and assumed lead responsibility for Chapters I, IV, and VI.  MIT assumed primary responsibility for Chapter III, the flight crew section of Chapter V, and Appendixes A, B, and C.  UCB assumed primary responsibility for Chapter II, the controller section of Chapter V, and Appendix D.
 
 
 
 
 

II. FAST-TIME SIMULATION FOR SYSTEMWIDE AVIATION SAFETY ANALYSIS

This chapter presents an overview of the role of fast-time simulation in systemwide aviation safety analysis in order to establish a context for the simulation demonstration described later in this report as well as to place that demonstration in a larger framework of aviation safety issues.
Although the use of fast-time simulation to analyze the operational performance of air traffic systems is well established, its use for aviation safety analysis is still in its infancy.  This has been largely due to the difficulty of incorporating the critical role of human operators in the simulation in an appropriate way, as discussed in more detail below.  However, as the systems being studied become more complex, it becomes harder to anticipate all the potential interactions that can occur from an a priori analysis, and therefore more important to develop analysis techniques that can allow these interactions emerge from the modeled behavior of the system.  This imposes two requirements that together determine the requirement for the use of fast-time simulation.  The first is the need to be able to model each component of the system in a sufficient level of detail to generate an appropriate level of interaction between components.  The second is the need to examine a large number of scenarios and to run a large number of repetitions of each scenario in order to explore the implications of situations that are not likely to occur very often but could have significant safety consequences when they do occur.
It should be noted that the term “systemwide analysis” implies an assessment of safety performance at the level of the National Airspace System (NAS) rather than of individual components.  While this could in principle be addressed through a simulation of the entire NAS, the scale of such an analysis makes this a somewhat impractical approach.  Therefore, a more practical approach would be to model a series of representative components of the system, such as a number of en-route sectors of varying characteristics, and then extrapolate these findings to the level of the NAS on the basis of the frequency of occurrence of similar situations throughout the NAS.  Of course, this will require an understanding of how specific characteristics vary throughout the NAS, as well as how to represent these characteristics in a simulation of a more limited region.
　
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