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However, these techniques and programs, valuable though they are, suffer from a number of limitations.  The first is that incidents, particularly those involving a significant risk of resulting in an accident, are fortunately rare events.  Not only does this reduce the amount of data from which conclusions can be drawn about how to reduce the occurrence of such incidents, but each incident is also a product of its own unique set of circumstances.  It is of course impossible to perform controlled experiments in the real world, and thus difficult to disentangle the contributions of different causal factors.  The second limitation is that while the incident reports provide information on the frequency with which the incidents occurred, there is currently only limited information on how many times similar situations arose that did not lead to an incident.  This situation may change as FOQA programs become more widely used, but these still only provide a limited view of the system.  The third limitation is that historical data, whether from incident reports or analysis of operational data, can provide no information on what may happen if new procedures or technologies are implemented.
This suggests that simulation modeling may have a valuable application in the analysis of safety issues in the NAS.  For this to be done, it will be necessary to extend the state-of-the-art of NAS fast-time simulation capabilities.  Existing simulation models of the operation of the NAS are widely used to measure the operational performance of the system but do not currently explicitly address safety issues; nor do they incorporate human performance aspects, except in an implied and aggregate way.  Other models, such as the Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) (Corker and Smith, 1993; Corker and Pisanich, 1995) and the Aircraft Performance Risk Assessment Model (APRAM) (Smith, et al., 2000) do address human performance and risk assessment, but they have not been configured for incorporation into fast-time simulations of NAS operations.
The focus of this research project is to investigate techniques for extending the state-of-the-art of NAS system-wide simulations to enable the modeling of human performance factors and behavioral variability, which are key to safety analysis.
Research Project Overview
The objective of this research was to investigate and develop techniques that promise to enable NAS fast-time simulation models to be useful for conducting safety analysis.  The research efforts focused on examining the types of safety issues that could be appropriately modeled by fast-time simulations and developing, testing, and demonstrating human behavioral modules and data analysis routines that would need to be incorporated into fast-time simulations in order to predict the safety effects of changes in procedures or technologies and to support risk assessment.
The research project spanned a three-year period.  The first year’s research was completed in calendar year 1999 (CY99) (Bobick et al., 1999).  It involved literature search, requirements analysis, model development, and proof-of-concept demonstration.  Primary research tasks accomplished included:
Reviewed NAS safety assessment requirements and approaches to meeting them, including assessment of the potential role of fast-time simulation

Identified system requirements for fast-time simulation in terms of features, functionality, and architecture, and investigated current capabilities and tools relevant to meeting these requirements

Reviewed existing models and techniques relevant to development of fast-time simulation capabilities for safety assessment, including NAS air traffic operations, human performance, and risk assessment models

Developed functional specifications for aircraft and controller behavior modules that need to be incorporated or interfaced with NAS fast-time air traffic models to meet safety assessment needs
　
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