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such as increasing temperatures, rising
sea levels, possible water shortages
and more frequent extreme weather
events, will affect all aspects of life, not
least the aviation industry. However, as
the present degree of knowledge on
this topic is relatively small, the timing
and extent of potential impacts are not
yet fully understood. Nevertheless, the
significance of the risk has been recognised
by SESAR, which calls for more
research in this area.
Climate change
An early response to this call for understanding
is EUROCONTROL抯 2008
Challenges of Growth study, which
includes the first results from a scoping
study into the potential climate change
implications for the ATM system.
These suggest that infrastructure, operations
and even the demand for travel
itself could all be affected. There is a
high degree of scientific confidence that
global temperatures will continue to rise
if CO2 emissions are not stabilised. With
a significant number of European airports
located in areas such as coastlines or
flood-plains, the resulting rise in sea
levels could affect capacity, operations
and ground access. As the heat at the
ocean抯 surface can take many years to
transfer to its deeper, colder waters, sea
level rise cannot be halted immediately,
suggesting that planning for impacts
on capacity at coastal airports may be
necessary at some point in the future.
This is not the only possible effect of rising
global temperatures. The IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report predicts average
temperature rises of up to 6.4癈 over the
course of the next century. The agreeably
warm beaches of the Mediterranean
could become significantly hotter during
the summer months, leading to a
potential decline in tourism and a corresponding
decrease in demand for some
of Europe抯 busiest high-season airports
and flight routes. The reverse of this may
be a shift in tourist traffic to the newly
warmer Northern European destinations,
a shift in demand for winter-sport-related
flights, and an extension of the summer
holiday season itself thanks to earlier
springs and later winters.
However, it is not just a change in
temperature for which the industry needs
to be prepared. It is also projected that
there will be an increase in extreme
weather events such as storms and flash
floods, which have the potential to affect
operations.
Social acceptability
of air travel
As if this were not enough, the industry
is also under attack from another, less
obvious, direction. The constant media
focus on the perceived environmental
impact of aviation may eventually challenge
the social acceptability of air travel.
As we are increasingly encouraged to
travel longer distances by train or take
our holidays at home, and the public
becomes better informed on environmental
issues, it is possible that the longhaul
holiday to an exotic location may
lose its social status, becoming increasingly
unjustifiable. Such a decrease in
demand has obvious economic consequences.
It not only reinforces the need
for technological improvements to lessen
aviation抯 environmental impacts but
suggests that a concerted public relations
campaign to restore the status of
air travel may also be necessary in the
longer term.
Conclusion
The challenges being faced are unprecedented
and difficult to predict in terms of
likelihood, timing and severity. Improved
environmental performance has become
both a legal and economic necessity in
order to improve current financial results,
comply with regulations and combat
the future effects of climate change on
the industry. The drive towards technological
and operational improvement
must continue. Achieving all this whilst
protecting revenue in increasingly uncertain
economic times is a fine balancing
act. However, if efficiency can be further
improved and emissions cut, this will
lead to environmental benefits whilst
at the same time improving the image
of the industry. Ultimately this can lead
only to a more sustainable and profitable
business. n
2- IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report
Summary for Policy
Makers, p. 13.
Environmental performance: a necessity
Skyway 50 - Winter 2008 13
Patricia Cauwenbergh,
Strategy and
Stakeholder Relations
Management Expert at
the EUROCONTROL
Experimental Centre,
explains the six methods
identified in the 2008
Challenges of Growth
　
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本文鏈接地址：Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(8)