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As for what constitutes "autonomy" in UA, the directors of the Service research laboratories have adopted
an onion-like layered series of capabilities to define this measure of UA sophistication. These definitions
run the span from teleoperated and preprogrammed flight by single aircraft to self-actualizing group
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flight. Figure 4.0-2 depicts where example UA stand in comparison to their ten levels of autonomy.
1955
Autonomous Control Levels
Pioneer
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
Global Hawk, Shadow,
ER/MP, and Fire Scout
J-UCAS Goal
Fully Autonomous Swarms
Group Strategic Goals
Distributed Control
Group Tactical Goals
Group Tactical Replan
Group Coordination
Adapt to Failures & Flight Conditions
Real Time Health/Diagnosis
Remotely Guided
Onboard Route Replan
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2 Predator
1
UCAR Goal
FIGURE 4.0-2. TREND IN UA AUTONOMY.
4.1 PROCESSOR TECHNOLOGIES
Although today's processors allow UA to fly entire missions with little or no human intervention, if the
ultimate goal is to replace a pilot with a mechanical facsimile of equal or superior thinking speed,
memory capacity, and responses (algorithms) gained from training and experience, then processors of
human-like speed, memory, and situational adaptability are necessary. Human capabilities are generally
agreed to equate to 100 million million-instructions-per-second (MIPS) in speed and 100 million
megabytes (MB) in memory. In the 1980s, AFRL attempted to develop a robotic adjunct to a fighter pilot
under the Pilot's Associate program, but the available processor technology proved insufficient.
Figures 4.1-1 and 4.1-2 illustrate the progress in processor technology toward human levels of
performance that has occurred and that are likely to be seen in the coming 25 years. Both show that
today's supercomputers' are within a factor of 10 of achieving human equivalence in speed and capacity
and could achieve human parity by the 2015 timeframe. The cost of a supercomputer is however
uncompetitive with that of a trained human, but by 2030 the cost of a 100 million MIP processor should
approach $10,000. As for inculcating a fighter pilot's training and experience into a robot brain, the
equivalent of Top Gun school for tomorrow's J-UCAS will consist of a post-flight download in seconds.
Today's silicon-based semiconductor processors will be limited to features about 0.1 micron in size, the
so-called "point one limit," by current manufacturing techniques based on ultraviolet lithography. Once
the limits of silicon semiconductors are reached, presumably in the 2015-2020 period, what are the
alternatives for developing more advanced processors? Just as computers have evolved from using
vacuum tubes to transistors to integrated circuits of semiconductors over the past 60 years, future ones
may progressively use optical, biochemical, quantum interference switching (QIS), and molecular
("moletronics") processors, or some combination of them, to achieve ever faster speeds and larger
memories. QIS offers a thousandfold increase in speed and moletronics a potential billionfold increase
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UAS ROADMAP 2005
over present computers. Ultimately, quantum computing may replace traditional computing based on
ones and zeros with using nuclear magnetic resonance to encode the spin of atoms.
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2030
1012
109
106
103
1
10-3
10-6 ENIAC
IBM 1620
iBM 7090
IBM 360/65
Intel 4004
Intel 80286
Sun SS1
Pentium
Cray CS6400
Pentium 4
Speed (MIPS)
Cray Red Storm
Personal Computers
Mainframes
FIGURE 4.1-1. TREND IN PROCESSOR SPEED.
10-6 10-3 1 103 106 109 1012
1012
109
106
103
1
10-3
10-6
Speed (MIPS)
Audio Channel
Video Channel
Optical Fiber
1985 PC
Book CD Library of Congress
1995 PC
IBM Deep Blue
Lizard Mouse
Monkey Human
Memory (Megabytes)
Cray Red Storm
FIGURE 4.1-2. RELATIONSHIP OF PROCESSOR SPEED AND MEMORY.
Recommended Investment Strategy: Rely on commercial markets (personal and commercial
computers) to drive processor technology. Focus DoD research on radiation–tolerant integrated circuit
components and algorithms.
4.2 COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES
The principal issue of communications technologies is flexibility, adaptability, and cognitive
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controllability of the bandwidth, frequency, and information/data (e.g. differentiated services, separate
　
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