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17-16
Figure 17-9. Additional real-world examples of how the 3P model guides decisions on a cross-country trip.
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Consequences: Gayle’s inexperience and lack of recent flight time create some risk of an accident, primarily because she plans to travel over mountains on a hazy day and land at an unfamiliar mountain airport that is still in IMC conditions. • Alternatives: Gayle might mitigate the pilot-related risk by hiring a CFI to accompany her and provide dual cross- country instruction. An added benefit is the opportunity to broaden her flying experience in safe conditions. • Reality: Accepting the reality that limited experience can create additional risk is a key part of sound risk management and mitigation. • External Factors: Like many pilots, Gayle must contend with the emotional pressure associated with acknowledging that her skill and experience levels may be lower than she would like them to be. Pride can be a powerful external factor!Pilot• Consequences: For a pilot whose experience consists mostly of local flights in good VMC, launching a long cross- country flight over mountainous terrain in hazy conditions could lead to pilot disorientation and increase the risk of an accident. • Alternatives: Options include postponing the trip until the visibility improves, or modifying the route to avoid extended periods of time over the mountains. • Reality: Hazy conditions and mountainous terrain clearly create risk for an inexperienced VFR-only pilot. • External Factors: Few pilots are immune to the pressure of “get-there-itis,” which can sometimes induce a decision to launch or continue in less than ideal weather conditions. EnvironmentAircraft• Consequences: This area presents low risk because the aircraft is in excellent mechanical condition and Gayle is familiar with its avionics.• Alternatives: Had there been a problem with her aircraft, Gayle might have considered renting another plane from her flight school. Bear in mind, however, that alternatives sometimes create new hazards. In this instance, there may be hazards associated with flying an unfamiliar aircraft with different avionics. • Reality: It is important to recognize the reality of an aircraft’s mechanical condition. If you find a maintenance discrepancy and then find yourself saying that it is “probably” okay to fly with it anyway, you need to revisit the consequences part of this checklist. • External Factors: Pilot decision-making can sometimes be influenced by the external pressure of needing to return the airplane to the FBO by a certain date and time. Because Gayle owns the airplane, there was no such pressure in this case. External Pressures• Consequences: Any number of factors can create risk of emotional pressure from a “get-there” mentality. In Gayle’s case, the consequences of her strong desire to visit family, her family’s expectations, and personal pride could induce her to accept unnecessary risk. • Alternatives: Gayle clearly needs to develop a mitigating strategy for each of the external factors associated with this trip. • Reality: Pilots sometimes tend to discount or ignore the potential impact of these external factors. Gayle’s open acknowledgement of these factors (e.g., “I might be pressured into pressing on so my mother won’t have to worry about our late arrival.”) is a critical element of effective risk management. • External Factors: (see above) Pilots can perceive hazards by using the CARE checklist:Forming Good Safety Habits
While the 3P model is similar to other methods, there are two good reasons to use the 3P model. First, the 3P model gives pilots a structured, efficient, and systematic way to identify hazards, assess risk, and implement effective risk controls. Second, practicing risk management needs to be as automatic in GA flying as basic aircraft control. As is true for other flying skills, risk management thinking habits are best developed through repetition and consistent adherence to specific procedures.
The OODA Loop
Colonel John Boyd, United States Air Forces (Retired), coined the term and developed the concept of the “OODA Loop” (Observation, Orientation, Decision, Action). The ideas, words, and phrases contained in Boyd’s briefings have penetrated not only the United States military services, but the business community and worldwide academia. The OODA Loop is now used as a standard description of decision-making cycles.
The Loop is an interlaced decision model which provides immediate feedback throughout the decision-making process. For SRM purposes, an abbreviated version of the concept [Figure 17-10] provides an easily understood tool for the pilot.
The first node of the Loop, Observe, reflects the need for situational awareness. A pilot must be aware of those things around him or her that may impact the flight. Continuous monitoring of aircraft controls, weather, etc., provides a constant reference point by which the pilot knows his or her starting point on the loop which permits the ability to immediately move to the next step.
　
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