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by 2030.
Despite the economic downturn, the study forecasts that
the number of flights in Europe will rise from today’s 10
million to 20.4 million in 2030. Airports are working hard to
optimise their capacity to meet demand. However, on current
plans, they will only be able to handle 18.1 million of those
flights, leaving 2.3 million flights a year or 6,300 flights a day
without the necessary infrastructure to accommodate them.
As a result, airport congestion is set to rise substantially. By
2030, around 20 of Europe’s largest airports will be operating
at full capacity for 8 or more hours a day. This is particularly
significant as about half of all flights will pass through one of
these saturated airports on a daily basis.
Long-term demand is still set to rise
substantially, even taking into account the
economic downturn and the prospect of slower
growth in the future, due to maturing European markets
and higher fuel-related costs. The expectation is, therefore,
that a small delay at one airport could rapidly escalate and
choke the whole European air network.
Moreover, the risk of weather-related delays is likely to
become more common. Aviation has been working hard
to understand and reduce its impact on the environment.
Now, for the first time, EUROCONTROL is looking at the
reverse effect: the likely impact of climate change on air traffic.
It is probable that extreme weather incidents will occur more
frequently and become more severe, bringing further disruption
to the already congested airports. And, as higher temperatures
become the norm across Europe, holiday patterns
are likely to change. While airlines will be able to change their
routes to cope with this, airports, which require substantial infrastructure,
will not be able to react with the same flexibility.
Capacity
Bridging the capacity gap
EUROCONTROL Annual Report 2008 31
A comprehensive approach to
capacity growth
EUROCONTROL’s Performance Review Unit (PRU)
continually monitors the Agency’s progress with regard
to meeting capacity demands and bringing down delay
times. It has noted with some regret that the agreed
target for en-route capacity and delays has not been
met since 2006. The PRU has established that summer
2008 en-route ATFM delays increased for the fourth consecutive
year and exceeded the agreed target by 90%
(1.9 min/flight versus a target of 1 min/flight). Furthermore,
4.3% of flights were delayed more than 15 minutes
due to en-route ATFM delays as against 3.3% in 2007.
While the majority of ACCs met or exceeded their ATC
capacity plans, inadequate planning in a minority of
them – notably Copenhagen, Nicosia, Rhein, Vienna,
Warsaw, Zagreb and Zurich – had a negative impact on
the performance of the overall European network. This
serves to illustrate the need for a collective and comprehensive
approach to performance management.
Although traffic is currently declining, it would be
short-sighted to cut back on investment in future ATC
capacity. Instead, States and ANSPs should continue
to close existing capacity gaps wherever possible, in
order to improve system flexibility, to optimise use of
resources and most importantly, to prepare for the
inevitable return to growth.
Working with partners to
improve the ATM network
DMEAN
Throughout the year, the Agency continued to address
network cooperative planning issues at operational
level via its Dynamic Management of the
European Airspace Network (DMEAN) Framework
Programme, which aims to provide urgently-needed
incremental network performance improvements by
2011, and to provide a basis for further SESAR enhancements.
With its deployment activities launched
in 2006, this initiative provides a more consolidated
approach to airspace, airport and air traffic flow and
capacity management related developments addressed
below, supported by improved information
exchange. This network-focused approach will allow
the ATM system to cope with demand and capacity
situations in a more dynamic and fuel-efficient manner,
relying on maximum operational cooperation
between the European ATM partners.
Flight Efficiency Plan
In reply to the fuel crisis in 2008, the Agency, CANSO
and IATA, in close partnership with airlines, airports
and ANSPs, agreed in September 2008 to the Flight
Efficiency Plan (FEP). The plan brings enhanced visibility
to specific urgent DMEAN and related developments
that support flight efficiency and emission
reductions. Given the relationship between DMEAN
　
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