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Likelihood is nothing more than taking a situation and determining the probability of its occurrence. It is rated as probable, occasional, remote, or improbable. For example, a pilot is flying from point A to point B (50 miles) in marginal visual flight rules (MVFR) conditions. The likelihood of encountering potential instrument meteorological conditions
9-5
Catastrophic
CriticalMarginalNegligibleImprobableRemoteOccasionalProbableRisk Assessment Matrix LikelihoodSeveritySeriousLowMediumSeriousSeriousHighHighHigh
Figure 9-2. This risk matrix can be used for almost any operation by assigning likelihood and severity. In the case presented, the pilot assigned the likelihood of occassional and the severity as catastrophic falls in the high-risk area.
I
llness—Do I have any symptoms?Medication—Have I been taking prescription or over-the-counter drugs?Stress—Am I under psychological pressure from the job? Worried about financial matters, health problems, or family discord?Alcohol—Have I been drinking within 8 hours? Within 24 hours?Fatigue—Am I tired and not adequately rested?Eating—Am I adequately nourished?I'M SAFE CHECKLISTyypggppj,pygpgp,yggqy
Figure 9-3. Prior to flight, pilots should assess their fitness, just as they evaluate the aircraft’s airworthiness.
(IMC) is the first question the pilot needs to answer. The experiences of other pilots, coupled with the forecast, might cause the pilot to assign “occasional” to determine the probability of encountering IMC.
The following are guidelines for making assignments.
• Probable—an event will occur several times.
• Occasional—an event will probably occur sometime.
• Remote—an event is unlikely to occur, but is possible.
• Improbable—an event is highly unlikely to occur. Severity of an Event
The next element is the severity or consequence of a pilot’s action(s). It can relate to injury and/or damage. If the individual in the example above is not an instrument flight rules (IFR) pilot, what are the consequences of encountering inadvertent IMC? In this case, because the pilot is not IFR rated, the consequences are catastrophic. The following are guidelines for this assignment.
• Catastrophic—results in fatalities, total loss
• Critical—severe injury, major damage
• Marginal—minor injury, minor damage
• Negligible—less than minor injury, less than minor system damage
Simply connecting the two factors as shown in Figure 9-2 indicates the risk is high and the pilot must either not fly or fly only after finding ways to mitigate, eliminate, or control the risk.Mitigating Risk
Risk assessment is only part of the equation. After determining the level of risk, the pilot needs to mitigate the risk. For example, the pilot flying from point A to point B (50 miles) in MVFR conditions has several ways to reduce risk:
• Wait for the weather to improve to good visual flight rules (VFR) conditions.
• Take a pilot who is rated as an IFR pilot.
• Delay the flight.
• Cancel the flight.
• Drive.
IMSAFE Checklist
One of the best ways that single pilots can mitigate risk is to use the IMSAFE checklist [Figure 9-3] to determine physical and mental readiness for flying:
1. Illness—Am I sick? Illness is an obvious pilot risk.
2. Medication—Am I taking any medicines that might affect my judgment or make me drowsy?
3. Stress—Am I under psychological pressure from the job? Do I have money, health, or family problems? Stress causes concentration and performance problems. While the regulations list medical conditions that require grounding, stress is not among them. The pilot should consider the effects of stress on performance.
4. Alcohol—Have I been drinking within 8 hours? Within 24 hours? As little as one ounce of liquor, one bottle of beer, or four ounces of wine can impair flying skills. Alcohol also renders a pilot more susceptible to disorientation and hypoxia.
5. Fatigue—Am I tired and not adequately rested? Fatigue continues to be one of the most insidious hazards to flight safety, as it may not be apparent to a pilot until serious errors are made.
9-6
6. Eating—Have I eaten enough of the proper foods to keep adequately nourished during the entire flight?The PAVE Checklist
Another way to mitigate risk is to perceive hazards. By incorporating the PAVE checklist into all stages of flight planning, the pilot divides the risks of flight into four categories: Pilot in command (PIC), Aircraft, enVironment, and External pressures (PAVE) which form part of a pilot’s decision-making process.
With the PAVE checklist, pilots have a simple way to remember each category to examine for risk prior to each flight. Once a pilot identifies the risks of a flight, he or she needs to decide whether the risk or combination of risks can be managed safely and successfully. If not, make the decision to cancel the flight. If the pilot decides to continue with the flight, he or she should develop strategies to mitigate the risks. One way a pilot can control the risks is to set personal minimums for items in each risk category. These are limits unique to that individual pilot’s current level of experience and proficiency.
　
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