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The Decision-Making Process
Understanding the decision-making process provides a foundation for developing the necessary ADM skills. Some situations, such as an extinguished pilot light, require an immediate response using established procedures. While pilots are well trained to react to emergencies, they are not as prepared to make decisions that require a more reflective response. The ability to examine any changes that occur during a flight, gather information, and assess risk before reaching a decision constitutes the steps of the decision-making process.
Defining the Problem
Problem definition is the first step in the decision-making process. Defining the problem begins with recognizing a change has occurred or an expected change did not occur. A problem is perceived first by the senses and then is distinguished through insight and experience. This “gut” reaction, coupled with an objective analysis of all available information, determines the exact nature and severity of the problem.
Choosing a Course of Action
After the problem has been identified, the pilot must evaluate the need to react to it and determine the actions that need
distance. During an afternoon flight with an indefinite ceiling, slight precipitation and the rumble of thunder is encountered. Should the pilot stay aloft, trusting the weather briefing’s assertion that “there is no precipitation in the area,” or land at the first available site as soon as possible?
• Operation—the interaction between the pilot, the balloon, and the environment is greatly influenced by the purpose of each flight operation. The pilot must evaluate the three previous elements to decide on the desirability of undertaking or continuing the flight as planned. It is worth asking why the flight is being made, how critical it is to maintain the original intent, and if the continuation of the flight is worth the risks?Situational Awareness
Situational awareness is the accurate perception and understanding of all the factors and conditions within the four fundamental risk elements that affect safety before, during, and after the flight. To maintain situational awareness, a pilot needs to understand the relative significance of these factors and their future impact on the flight. When a pilot is situationally aware, he or she has an overview of the total operation.
Some obstacles to maintaining situational awareness include (but are not limited to) fatigue, stress, and work overload; complacency; and classic behavioral traps such as the drive to meet or exceed flight goals. Situational awareness depends on the ability to switch rapidly between a number of different, and possibly competing, information sources and tasks while maintaining a collective view of the environment. Experienced pilots are better able to interpret a situation
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D
etect the fact that a change has occurred.Estimate the need to counter or react to the change.Choose a desirable outcome for the success of the flight.Identify actions which could successfully control the change.Do the action necessary to adapt to the change.Evaluate the effect of the action.DECIDE MODELFigure 1-7. Decide model.
Figure 1-9. The DECIDE Model can provide a framework for effective decision-making.
F
igure 1-8. The Observation, Orientation, Decision, Action (OODA Loop).ACTOBSERVEORIENTDECIDE
Figure 1-10. The four nodes of OODA Loop decision-making.
to be taken to resolve the situation in the time available. The expected outcome of each possible action should be considered and the risks assessed before deciding on a response to the situation.
Implementing Decisions and Evaluating the Outcomes
Although a decision may be reached and a course of action implemented, the decision-making process is not complete. It is important to think ahead and determine how the decision could affect other phases of the flight. As the flight progresses, a pilot must continue to evaluate the outcome of the decision to ensure that it is producing the desired result.
The DECIDE Model
A common approach to decision-making for the last decade has been the rational choice model. This concept holds that good decisions result when a pilot gathers all the information related to a particular scenario, reviews it, analyzes the options available, and decides on the best course of action to follow.
The DECIDE Model, a six-step process intended to provide the pilot with a logical way of approaching decision-making, is an example of this concept. The six elements of the DECIDE Model represent a continuous loop process to assist a pilot in decision-making. If a pilot uses the DECIDE Model in all decision-making, it becomes natural and results in better decisions being made under all types of situations. [Figure 1-9]
The OODA Loop
Colonel John Boyd, USAF (Retired), coined the term and developed the concept of the “OODA Loop” (Observation, Orientation, Decision, Action). [Figure 1-11] The ideas, words, and phrases contained in Boyd’s briefings have penetrated not only the United States military services, but the business community and academia around the world. The OODA Loop is now used as a standard description of decision-making cycles.
　
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