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identify existing methods and their use for safety prediction, and
coordinate the development of international aviation methods in
this area.
INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE
1-3
B. This is an area where development is still in its infancy and is ripe for
cooperative development, to ensure both consistency of measure as well as
ensuring complementary rather than parallel development, increasing the
net leverage of resources.
III. SCOPE:
A. Identify the responsible individuals, analysts and model developers in the
areas of separation standards and collision risk within the FAA and the
European aviation community.
B. Identify small core group to:
· Develop the issues related to this area,
· Identify available documentation related to the issues - copy and
disseminate,
· Develop a joint concept paper that provides a framework of critical
assumptions and definitions, defines basic relationships and critical
parameters, and identifies basic modeling needs, and
· Develop an agenda and schedule a working conference to bring the core
group together.
C. Hold a working conference to:
· Finalize the concept paper,
· Identify sub-groups to work on the issues on a continuing basis to assess
the present level of safety and develop methods for assessing safety
implications arising from future options for operations, and
· Identify modeling needs and identify a sub-group to prepare a plan for
joint development to meet these needs.
IV. SCHEDULE:
A. Reach agreement on an approach 11/96
B. Identify individuals to participate in this endeavor 1/97
C. Draft concept paper completed 5/97
D. Plan agenda, validate and time for the conference 5/97
E. Conference date (for planning purposes) 9/97
F. Develop Conference follow up program 12/97
The first order of business for the program leads was to form European and American
teams. The teams consist, in large part, of volunteers who, because of their individual
interest in the subject, took on this task in addition to their regular work. As the work
progresses it is expected that additional personnel with expertise in areas important to the
effort will join the program.
Once initial teams were assembled, a set of modeling criteria was developed to define the
scope of the modeling effort. These criteria, presented later in this report, were refined
and expanded over time. The modeling criteria are dependent in large part on the safetyrelated
issues that the model(s) should address. As indicated in the Action Plan, these
SEPARATION SAFETY MODELING
1-4
issues include separation minima, automation aids, satellite navigation, flight management
systems, data link, and various relaxations of the current fixed jet route system, from
“contract” user-preferred routings, to full “Free Flight,” in which the pilot is allowed to
change course without notifying ATC (euphemistically termed “instantaneous intent”¾the
controller first knows of the intent when he/she sees it on the display). There is still much
uncertainty as to how and to what extent many of the “Free Flight” concepts will be
implemented. Advice was sought from several quarters, and the unanimous opinion was
that the modeling effort should not attempt to encompass all possible issues. Thus, we
have yet to finalize on a set of issues that the model should address, although all are
agreed that one of the criteria must be to restrict the model to only address issues that
make economic sense. For example, if no real economic benefit would be gained from
reducing horizontal separation minima to less than four nautical miles, then why spend the
resources to include such a possibility in the model?
Two other efforts were carried out simultaneously. A list of factors potentially affecting
the probability of a midair collision was drafted and continues to be expanded. A
bibliography of relevant documents also was begun and continues. Both the list of factors
and the bibliography are presented later in this paper.
The next phase of work will concentrate on the modeling approach. A number of issues
initially need to be addressed:
· Should the model estimate absolute risk or relative risk?
· What definition of “collision” should be used - how should aircraft
be represented (spheres, cylindrical sections, ...)?
· Should the model be of modular construction?
· What role will simulation, mathematical modeling, probabilities, etc.
play?
Many of these questions are discussed in this report.
ESTABLISHING SEPARATION STANDARDS
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