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Although airspace management reforms have been slower and more limited than many Chinese analysts had wished (Wang and Xin, 2010), the analysts are hopeful that the reforms will help propel the “takeoff” of Chinese general aviation. According to CAAC projections, by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan (2015), China is expected to require between 10,000 and 12,000 general aviation aircraft of vari-ous types. During the next five to 10 years, the number is expected to increase by an average of 30 percent annually, and the value of the general aviation market is expected to reach more than 1 trillion Ren-minbi (RMB) (Meng, 2010). It should be noted, however, that such projections are often based on perceived potential market demand alone. They do not account for serious supply-side bottlenecks such as the shortage of general aviation airports and qualified pilots.
A particularly attractive segment of the general aviation market may be business aviation. According to industry data, as of the end of 2009, there were 50,000 business aircraft in the world, 18,000 of them in the United States alone. Even a developing country such as Brazil boasted 2,000 business aircraft, whereas China had only 30 in com-mercial operation at that time. At present, China has an import tariff of 4 percent and a value-added tax of 17 percent on business aircraft, but these have done little to dampen the rapid expansion in business aviation in recent years: Deer Jet (a subsidiary of Hainan Airlines), by far the largest charter aircraft company in China, with 84 percent of the charter market, has seen its operational volume increase by 21 percent in 2008 and 32 percent in 2009, with a projected 60-percent increase in 2010 (Shi, 2010, p. 69). According to 2009 projections by Bombardier, between 2009 and 2018 the Chinese market will require at least 300 business aircraft, while more-optimistic projections put the figure at as high as 1,000 or more (Shi, 2010, pp. 67–68). Since China does not appear to have an indigenous business-aircraft development program, all of these aircraft will presumably have to be imported.
As of September 2009, China had a total of 208 civil helicopters (including those in police and emergency service), more than half of which were light helicopters weighing 4 tons or less (Zhao and Ma, 2009, p. 64). There were only 12 civilian maritime search and rescue helicopters in the country and, as of July 2008, fewer than 30 police helicopters spread across 13 police departments (“China’s Police Heli-copter Starts,” 2008, p. 45). As of 2009, there were roughly 0.16 civil helicopters per million residents, compared with 59.41 for Australia,
41.33 for the United States, 4.28 for Brazil, and a global average of 4.8 (Zhao and Ma, 2009, p. 64; Zhang, 2008, p. 37).2 Most of China’s civil helicopters are imported—in 2007, only five of the 138 helicopters registered to civil general aviation companies were domestically pro-duced (Zhang, 2008, p. 37).
Assuming an average annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 8 percent, Chinese aviation officials project that the Chinese civil market will have a total requirement of 1,440 helicop-ters by 2018, requiring approximately 1,250 new deliveries. If these projections are correct, the Chinese market will account for nearly 10 percent of the 12,700 civil helicopters projected for delivery worldwide between 2010 and 2017 (Xia, 2009, p. 58).
　
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本文鏈接地址：Ready for Takeoff China’s Advancing Aerospace Industry(13)