2.7. Normalized RPK Flown by Major Carriers in Each Country in 2007 ........................................... 14
2.8. Projections of the Growth of the Chinese Commercial Fleet Based on Alternative RPK/GDP Ratios and Average GDP Growth Rates Compared with Boeing’s Projection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.9. Spatial Pattern of Domestic Air Passenger Flows in 2005 . . . . . . 16
2.10. High-Speed Rail Network in China .............................. 19
2.11. Travel Time by PDL from Beijing to Selected Cities . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.12. International and Domestic RPK for Five Nations in 2007 .............................................................. 22
4.1. U.S. Aerospace Imports, 2009 .................................... 68
4.2. U.S. Aerospace Imports, 2005–2009.............................. 69
4.3. U.S. Aerospace Exports, 2005–2009.............................. 70
vii
Tables
4.1. International Partners in the ARJ21 Program.................... 45
4.2. Major International Partners in the C919 Program . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
4.3. Current Boeing Work Packages and Procurement at Chinese-Owned Enterprises........................................ 73
4.4. Current Airbus Work Packages and Procurement at Chinese-Owned Enterprises........................................ 83
ix
Summary
China’s aerospace industry has advanced at an impressive rate over the past decade. While some of this progress can be attributed to rapidly growing governmental support for China’s aerospace sector, China’s aerospace capabilities have also benefited from the increasing partici-pation of its aerospace industry in the global commercial aerospace market and the supply chains of the world’s leading aerospace firms. This monograph assesses China’s aerospace capabilities and the extent to which China’s participation in commercial aerospace markets and supply chains is contributing to the improvement of those capabilities. Specific areas assessed include China’s commercial aviation manufac-turing capabilities, its commercial and military capabilities in space, efforts of the Chinese government to encourage foreign participation in the development of China’s aerospace industry, transfers of foreign aerospace technology to China, the extent to which U.S. and other foreign aerospace firms are dependent on supplies from China, and the implications of all of these issues for U.S. security interests.
Chinese airlines, which today operate about 1,400 large commer-cial aircraft and regional jets, are projected to purchase roughly 4,000 new jetliners over the next 20 years. Actual purchases could be more or less than this projection, depending on whether China’s economy grows at the expected rate and on the availability of alternative forms of transportation such as high-speed rail. Chinese air freight compa-nies will likely purchase another 100 to 200 cargo aircraft, but many of them may be converted aging passenger planes. In September 2009, there were about 200 civil helicopters in China, and approximately
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