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revise your plan as the situation changes
or you learn new information.
What this model makes clear is the need
to deliberately search for threats and
evaluate the results of the decision.
Whether you would use something like
this as a memory aid or not, remember
those two points - search for threats and
evaluate the results.
Look for disconfirming information
When human beings make a judgment or
decision, our natural tendency is to look
for information that reinforces our judgment.
After you buy a car, do you read
more about the model you chose or the
one you didn’t? That tendency needs to be
overcome if we are going to make decisions
like experts - we have to be able to
recognize that the situation did not fit our
decision or that it is changing further.
When you make a call, deliberately look
for anything that might be wrong with that
solution. Maintain an attitude of searching
for problems and you will likely identify
and resolve them.
Make your judgments finer by looking
at the details of information
Consider the following report: the crew of
an MD-80 was number two for takeoff
from ORD with convective activity in the
airport area. ATC reported wind as 240 at
27 gusting to 41 knots. The aircraft departing
ahead reported a loss of 20 knots
on takeoff. ATC then cleared the MD-80
for takeoff. Would you depart? What further
information would you look at?
Would you apply any precautions? The
MD-80 captain elected to use max power
on takeoff and rotate at a higher speed,
but encountered a 30 - 40 knot loss at 100
feet AGL. DFDR revealed G forces from
-0.65 to + 1.4 during the encounter.
Now look again at the details of the situation.
Gusts to 41 knots… reported loss of
20 knots… crosswind components varying
from 14 to 20 knots. Was the runway
wet given the convective weather in the
area? What might you observe on radar?
While each of these items was likely
within limits and ATC issued no
“microburst alert,” which would prohibit
the takeoff, the combined weight of several
marginal variables must be taken into
account. In retrospect, the Captain would
have preferred to wait - but everyone else
was departing, weren’t they? Was there
enough information present to choose
prospectively what the Captain believes
was correct in hindsight? Look at the details
of the information to make your
judgment and refine it.
Summing things up…
Pilots usually tend to make decisions
quickly and accurately by recognizing the
type of situation and applying a strategy
that fits. The advantages of this approach
are timeliness and accuracy. Its risks lie in
the tendency not to re-evaluate a decision
made and implemented., when new information
suggest the information has
changed or the decision did not have the
desired effect. To make these decisions
better, be more deliberative when time
permits. Search for safety threats. Evaluate
decision results. Look for any problems
with a decision - and look to the
details of the information you have to
refine your judgment.
Continental 1943, a
DC-9-32, suffered a
landing gear collapse
after touchdown
due to the
flight crews failure
to properly set the
hydraulic system.
FSI - HUMAN FACTORS 9
Solar Radiation: The Facts
Introduction
Radiation is not something that airline crew members talk
about frequently, but there is important information out
there regarding low dose radiation exposure that crew
members should know.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) considers airline
crew members as being “occupationally exposed” to
low doses of cosmic radiation and to a lesser degree, from
air shipments of radioactive materials. Although risk from
these exposures is extremely low, the FAA recommends
that workers occupationally exposed to radiation, and managers
of these employees, receive instruction on the possible
health effects associated with such exposure and on
appropriate actions to take to minimize this exposure.
It is important to note that low dose radiation risks are
based on mathematical models of the effects of high radiation
doses. There are currently no conclusive studies that
show adverse health outcomes from the kinds of exposures
experienced by aircrew members. Although encouraging,
this could well be because either definitive studies have
not been done to prove a relationship, or not enough time
has elapsed to see an effect in humans. Therefore, it is important
　
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