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This incident shows that intelligence gathering with the help of high technology can cut off the transfer of missiles and other weapons to terrorists.
The installation of a sophisticated antimissile system similar to that employed on military aircraft to divert surface-to-air missiles is an effective deterrent. One good example is the measure taken by the British government which, immediately after the discovery of 20 SA-7s in the coaster Eksund, which was intercepted by French authorities off the coast of Brittany in November 1987 when bound for the IRA, .tted all British Army helicopters .ying in Northern Ireland with electronic and other decoy systems to confuse the missile’s heat-seeking guidance system. These included the US-made Saunders, AN/ALG 144. This system, when linked to the Tracor AN/ALE 40 chaff dispenser, works by jamming the missile’s homing radar and sending infra-red .ares and chaff to act as a decoy for the heat-seeking device.52
The system is used by both the US and the Israeli Armies, which have been well-pleased with its performance. Until the British realised that the IRA might be in possession of SAMs, the Ministry of Defense hesitated to install such a system because of the high cost involved, and its decision to do so shows the seriousness of the threat. Another example of a good counter-measure is the response of El Al airlines to the threat of such an attack which included the installation of electronic countermeasure equipment similar to that employed on military aircraft to divert surface-to-air missiles.53
However the problem is that
51The Daily Telegraph, 16 October 1984; The Times, 12 December 1984.
52The Daily Telegraph, 7 January 1988.
53Lewis and Kaplan (1990,
p.
226);
Crenshaw
(1987, p. 126).

C. Emerging Threats
these countermeasures are not yet fully effective, although they could minimize the
threat. Hence there is a need to proceed diligently with the development of systems that are guaranteed to be able to prevent this type of attack against civil aviation.
For a successful missile attack against aircraft, the .ring position has to be located within range of the .ight path. A missile’s guidance system is such that the weapon has to be .red within a few degrees of the .ight path if the infra-red guidance is to locate the target. Accordingly, a possible preventive measure would be to prevent terrorists from getting into a .ring position with their missiles. However, it would be very dif.cult to cut off areas of up to 6 km wide that lie in the paths of aircraft as they land and take off. This measure is therefore impractica-ble if not impossible.54
This dif.culty can be overcome to an extent by patrolling the outer areas of airports in times of stringent security conditions might prevent such attacks. Even in times when no speci.c threat has been received, it is within the capacity of most States to monitor those strips of land from which a SAM could be launched and thus minimize the risk. At the same time, these security operations would deter terrorists from spending vital resources on buying SAMs given the limited possibilities for their use.
Finally, it must be noted that, whatever counter measures are used in responding to new and emerging threats in aviation, the thread which binds the fabric of anti-terrorism is risk management. As one commentator said, the achievement of safety in aviation is no longer an esoteric activity.55
It has to be a structured series of measures which starts by identifying hazards, and evaluating potential scenarios. It should end in the implementation of a management process. What is therefore needed is systematic assessment and a global means of ranking risks based on their seriousness and signi.cance.
X. The Diverse Nature of Missile Attacks
The use of SAMs and anti-tank rockets by terrorists goes back to 1973. On 5 September 1973 Italian police arrested .ve Middle-Eastern terrorists armed with SA-7s. The terrorists had rented an apartment under the .ight path to Rome Fumicino Airport and were planning to shoot down an El Al airliner coming in to land at the airport.56
　
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