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should heed Mr. Preeg’s message planning forward.
The Chinese yuan is greatly undervalued compared with a market-
based exchange rate because China has linked its currency
to the dollar, which has been falling relative to other currencies.
Instead, the yuan should have been appreciating over the past several
years. Ten percent annual growth in China’s GDP means that
average productivity has been rising at close to 10 percent, while
its export industry has exhibited productivity growth well above
average. This is the normal path of rapid industrial modernization,
as happened in earlier decades in Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea,
and their exchange rates all rose greatly at comparable periods
of development, in fact, by 300 percent in the case of Japan. The
Chinese exchange rate, in contrast, has been going in the other
direction, and getting more misaligned each year.
The two results of this dollar-linked exchange rate policy are a
rapid rise in the Chinese current account surplus, from an already
excessive 7 percent of GDP in 2005 to a projected 12 percent this
year, and massive purchases of foreign exchange, mostly dollars, by
the Central Bank, growing from $250 billion in 2006 to over $500
billion in 2007. Both of these basic benchmarks of a misaligned
currency will continue to rise unless and until the yuan exchange
rate is greatly revalued, there is increased infl ation, or both.
The day of reckoning is rapidly approaching as Chinese trading
partners, particularly the United States and the European Union
(EU), say enough is enough, and again for two reasons. The Chinese
trade surplus in manufactures has surged from $312 billion
in 2006 to approximately $440 billion in 2007, largely in job and
technology-sensitive industries. The other reason is that the accumulating
Chinese foreign exchange holdings will reach $2 trillion
in 2008, headed for $3 trillion in 2010, much of which is being converted
to “sovereign wealth” investment abroad, in acquisitions and
wide ranging portfolio investment. One trillion dollars of sovereign
investment equates to $1 billion investments in 1,000 companies!
The most important recent development has been the realization
by Europeans that the trade defi cit/sovereign investment
problems with China hit them as hard as they do the United States.
The Chinese trade surplus in manufactures is rising faster with the
EU than with the United States, and the European surplus may
soon overtake that of the United States. The reason again is the
exchange rate. With the dollar overvalued, and many Asian currencies
undervalued due to massive central bank purchases, market
forces have sent the euro up by 60 percent against the dollar,
much to the benefi t of the beleaguered U.S. trade account. U.S.
exports are growing faster, largely at European expense, and the
O Th Mh
A worker and a supervisor walk into a warehouse aisle…(stop me if you’ve heard this one)…and one says
to the other, “There are 100 shelf locations in this aisle. Starting with the first location, you are going to go
to each location and mark an X on each shelf tag. Then you’re going to come back to the beginning and visit
every other location (2, 4, 6, etc.). If there is an X, you’ll erase it. Then you’ll come back to the beginning and
visit every third location (3, 6, 9, etc.). If there is an X, erase it. If there is no X, then mark it with an X. Keep
coming back to the beginning and doing this for every 4th, 5th, etc. location until you finish by only visiting the
100th location. Then come to my office and tell me which locations have an X”. What should the worker tell
the supervisor? (careful with your answer)
ANSWER ON PAGE 16
http://www.mhia.org 7
MHIA produces a forecast of the Material Handling Equipment
Manufacturers (MHEM) each quarter. Here are
highlights from the December, 2007 release.
Prospects for 2009 are changed from our view at this time last year.
Instead of a rebound, it now appears that the contraction forecasted
for 2008 will continue into 2009. Concerns for the housing market
contraction, oil price impact, reduction in corporate profi ts, consumer
and investment confi dence coupled with the observation that not
one of our leading indicators clearly predict a positive turn in 2008
or 2009 are the basis for this change. This is an aggregate point of
view and results will vary by individual market segment with the
MHEM series as illustrated in the last issue of On The Mhove.
Our outlook for 2008 and 2009 is for a mild market contraction:
• MHEM New Orders grew 8.1% in 2007.
Our forecast is for a mild contraction in 2008 in the 5.0% to 7.0%
　
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