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range recovering late in 2009.
• MHEM Shipments grew almost 10.0% in 2007.
Buoyed by a currently healthy backlog, Shipments will contract in
the 2.0% to 4.0% range in 2008 with similar performance in 2009.
• MHEM Consumption grew 6.5% in 2007.
We forecast that Consumption (Shipment plus Imports less Exports)
will contract about 5.0% in 2008 and 2009. Exports grew
23.0% in 2007 and are forecasted to grow in the 18.0% in 2008
and slow modestly in 2009.
MHEM Forecast 2007-2009 vs. GDP
Within the shaded range indicated below, a contradiction is
forecasted for MHEM in 2008 - 2009.
For the details, visit www.mhia.org, the MHEM Forecast is available
on the homepage for Members at no charge and for Non-members
for a modest fee.
MHEM Forecast
shift will become larger in the year ahead because of
the time lag between the recent euro appreciation and
its impact on the trade account. Likewise, Europeans,
if anything, are more concerned than Americans about
Chinese sovereign investment in energy, infrastructure,
and research and development (R&D)-intensive
industries.
The showdown will thus center on China versus the
United States and Europe because, to paraphrase Willi
Sutton, that is where the Chinese trade surpluses and
sovereign investment targets are. What exactly will
happen is not clear, but it is likely to happen in 2008
as the Chinese trade surplus continues to grow and
offi cial reserves reach the $2 trillion level.
Governments so far have had their heads in the sand.
China is in violation of its International Monetary Fund
(IMF) obligation not to manipulate its currency through
protracted, large scale purchases by the Central Bank,
and of its World Trade Organization (WTO) obligation
not to use exchange rate policy to offset market
access for imports from prior trade liberalization. The
U.S. and European governments, as well as the IMF
secretariat, call for a revaluation of the yuan, but they
have not offi cially complained about such violations.
China, meanwhile, has stated that exchange rate policy
is strictly a matter of national sovereignty, thus repudiating
its IMF and WTO obligations.
The likely outcome, as has happened in the past,
is that as governments dither, markets take charge.
They are already doing so through the appreciation
of the euro and other currencies with market-based
exchange rates, such as the Canadian dollar and the
Mexican peso. A likely fl ashpoint, with high political
visibility, is the Boeing/Airbus competitive relationship.
Airbus is now talking of a fi nancial crisis from
the strong euro, while reducing R&D expenditures and
considering a new production facility in the United
States, which means fewer French and German jobs.
What happens next will tend toward crisis management:
protectionist threats, investment restrictions, and
a policy showdown within the IMF, with an opportunity
for creative leadership by its new managing director.
China will probably suffer the most from its years of
delay in reining in excessively export-oriented growth,
termed mercantilism by economists. A very large revaluation,
together with higher infl ation, will hit the manufacturing
sector especially hard, while overall growth
will likely decline for at least a couple of years.
This leaves the question of what happens to all
those export-oriented manufacturing fi rms in China,
foreign and domestic, many of which have become
very profi table. A prudent start would be for companies
to make two projections for investment strategy
ahead: one based on a continuation of current relative
prices in China and abroad, and the other on a 50
percent revaluation of the yuan and 10 percent annual
infl ation.
Reprinted with permission from Ernest Preeg, Senior Fellow
in Trade & Productivity, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.
8 On The Mhove
There’s no question that green (or
sustainability, if you prefer) has
taken on a new importance in business
during the past year. What was once
considered to be a “nice to have” attribute
is rapidly becoming a corporate edict on a
grand scale. And it’s becoming important
throughout the supply chain (see related
story pg. 1).
In fact, companies as diverse as New
Zealand’s dairy products supplier Fonterra
and worldwide retailer Wal-Mart are
part of the corporate green movement.
Like others, both are actively working to
reduce the carbon footprint of their supply
chains.
The opportunity here is huge. As much
as 75% of a company’s carbon footprint
　
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